December rate rise less likely following Trump victory

Donald TrumpDonald Trump’s election as President of the United States has had little impact on the UK stock market, but the chance of a US interest rate rise in December has been pared back from around 80 per cent to 50 per cent.

The FTSE100 stood slightly ahead of yesterday’s close at 10.10am, confounding overnight futures rates that indicated a 4 per cent fall in the FTSE100.

But the Nikkei 225 fell 5 per cent last night, although after the index closed, futures markets showed signs of recovery.

S&P 500 futures suggest the US will open down around 1.5 per cent at 2.30pm this afternoon UK time.

The Mexican peso fell more than 11 per cent against the dollar on the US election result, although has recovered some ground and is now trading down around 9 per cent lower.

Hargreaves Lansdown senior analyst Laith Khalaf says: “Mining companies are winners on the Footsie so far, in particular Fresnillo. Shares in the precious metal miner have risen by almost 10 per cent. The price of its products, gold and silver, have risen, while the costs of its mining operations in Mexico, have fallen thanks to the drop in the peso. Pharmaceutical companies have also seen their share prices rise, as Clinton’s attacks on drug pricing are now no longer a factor.

“The dollar has proved to be a casualty of a Trump win, so far at least, as markets have slashed forecasts of a US interest rate in December, the chances of which have now been pegged back to fifty-fifty.”

Invesco senior managing director of investments Karen Dunn Kelley says: “Given the political uncertainty introduced by the election results, we expect to see continued market volatility during the coming weeks. We anticipate that this volatility will dissipate in the near term, however, as markets shift to a “wait-and-see” mode, digesting the new administration’s policy announcements and assessing the likelihood of their implementation. Market reaction following the recent surprise Brexit referendum result serves as a helpful reference point in this regard.”

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould says: “On the plus side, markets would have usually welcomed a President whose agenda includes corporation tax cuts and a substantial – if still vague – infrastructure investment programme, as both could boost a US economy which still appears to be stuck at stall speed.

“The biggest long-term downside risk is posed by Trump’s protectionist, even isolationist stance, for two reasons.

“First, economists agree on very few things but one point of consensus seems to be that the introduction of tariffs in the 1930s made a difficult situation an awful lot worse than it would have been otherwise. There is already clear evidence of slowing international trade flows and tariffs would be a further burden on this front.

“Second, tariffs and protectionism are inherently inflationary. Rolling back the disinflation prompted by two decades of global supply chain management would spook bond markets and potentially mean central banks have to take interest rates higher more quickly than expected. The Fed may therefore pause in December but could find itself playing catch-up, if Trump does impose tariffs on imports from Asia, Latin America and Europe – a prospect which is likely to weigh on emerging market stocks particularly heavily.”